Market Update · October 2026 · Stanislaus County & Bay Area
Stanislaus County Housing Market: Prices Are Up, Rates Are Up. Here's What That Means.
Statewide, California home sales slowed in September. Stanislaus County went the other way: prices and sales both rose. Here are the latest numbers, where they come from, and what they mean if you're buying or selling in Modesto, Ceres, Turlock, Patterson or anywhere in the county.
Median sold price and sales change for existing single-family homes, September 2026, from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.)[1]. Mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, week of October 15, 2026[2].
Stanislaus County home prices: September 2026
The median price for an existing single-family home in Stanislaus County was $491,800 in September 2026. That's up 3.5% from August and up 3.5% from $475,000 a year ago. Sales in the county rose 5.1% year over year.[1]
That's a stronger showing than both California as a whole and the wider Central Valley. Statewide sales fell 6.5% from a year earlier. The Central Valley region's median held flat at $500,000 and its sales dropped 2.5%.[1]
| Area (Sept 2026) | Median price | Price YoY | Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stanislaus County | $491,800 | +3.5% | +5.1% |
| Central Valley region | $500,000 | 0.0% | −2.5% |
| SF Bay Area region | $1,325,000 | +1.9% | −3.1% |
| California | $899,720 | +1.7% | −6.5% |
Source: C.A.R. September 2026 Home Sales and Price Report.[1]
Mortgage rates just hit 7.40%
Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% for the week of October 15, 2026, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%.[2] C.A.R. put September's average at 6.86%, up from 6.67% in August.[1]
Here's what that does to a real payment. On the county's median home with 20% down, principal and interest is about $2,724 a month at 7.40%. On last year's median ($475,000) at 6.27%, it was about $2,345. That's roughly $379 more per month for the typical buyer, before taxes and insurance.
Payment estimates are my own math using standard 30-year amortization and the cited prices and rates. They are illustrations, not a loan quote.
Why prices aren't falling even as sales slow statewide
Higher rates usually cool prices. So far they haven't, for two reasons:
- Supply is still tight. Owners who locked in low rates are reluctant to sell, which keeps new listings limited and supports prices.[3]
- Homes are still selling quickly. Statewide median time on market was 29 days in September, down from 32 a year ago, and homes sold for 98.8% of list price on average.[1]
C.A.R.'s chief economist Jordan Levine summed it up: slower sales may not translate into a comparable decline in prices in the near term.[1] And relief on rates may not come soon: Fannie Mae expects rates to stay above 7% into 2027.[3]
The Bay Area gap is still $833,200
The Bay Area median hit $1,325,000 in September, up 4.2% from August and 1.9% from a year ago.[1] Against Stanislaus County's $491,800, that's an $833,200 difference on the typical home. That gap is a big reason buyers keep coming over the Altamont, and a big reason Stanislaus sales grew while the rest of the state slowed.
Thinking about the move? See my full Bay Area to Central Valley relocation guide.
What this means if you're selling
- You still have equity on your side. Local prices are up year over year, so most owners are selling into strength, not weakness.
- Buyers have more time and more leverage on terms. Statewide, more sellers are offering concessions like paying points to buy down a buyer's rate.[3] A buydown can cost less than a price cut and help more buyers qualify.
- Price it right from day one. With payments about $379 a month higher than last year, overpriced homes sit. If your listing expired, the price-to-payment math is usually where it broke down.
What this means if you're buying
- Negotiate the terms, not just the price. Ask for seller credits toward a rate buydown or closing costs.
- Don't count on a price drop. Stanislaus prices rose 3.5% while rates climbed. Waiting has not been cheaper this year.
- Get pre-approved at today's rate. Know your real payment at 7.40% before you shop, and ask your lender about refinance options if rates fall later.
Stanislaus County market FAQ
Are home prices going up in Stanislaus County?
Yes. The September 2026 median was $491,800, up 3.5% from $475,000 a year earlier, per C.A.R.[1]
What are mortgage rates right now?
Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.40% for the week of October 15, 2026, up from 6.27% a year ago.[2]
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Stanislaus County?
It's balanced and leaning toward buyers on terms. Prices and sales are rising locally, but higher rates give buyers more time and room to ask for concessions.
Should I wait for rates to drop before selling?
Not necessarily. Fannie Mae expects rates to stay above 7% into 2027.[3] If you need to move in the next year, a well-priced home can sell now.
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What's your home worth in this market?
Get a real value based on recent nearby sales, not a website guess. I cover Stanislaus County and the Bay Area, from Modesto, Ceres and Turlock to Patterson, Tracy and Manteca.
Get my home valueSources
- California Association of REALTORS®, September 2026 Home Sales and Price Report.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 15, 2026, via StockTitan. See also freddiemac.com/pmms.
- CalHomeNews, "House hunters gain leverage, not bargains, as California home sales fall in September", October 19, 2026.